Poll Watch: Elway Research Evaluates Seattle-wide Races One Month Before Ballots Drop :: NPI’s Cascadia Advocate

With the August 2021 top-two election now well and truly in the rearview mirror, and with Labor Day also over, the sprint towards the Washington state local general election is on as the summer season shifts. place in the fall.

Candidates who survived the election of the first two or who were able to ignore it altogether due to a single opponent have only one month left to plead their case with voters before the ballots fail. arrive in state mailboxes.

Heading into the general election, Crosscut and Elway Research polled voters on their views on Seattle’s four city-wide races, providing new data to an electoral landscape that – with the notable exception NPI and Change Research polls – has been devoid of credibility, independent poll.

Here is a brief overview of each of their findings, followed by a conclusion.

Mayor

The poll found Bruce Harrell ahead of Lorena Gonzalez, reflecting the outcome of the election of the top two. 42% of those polled supported Harrell, while 27% supported Gonzalez. About a quarter of respondents were unsure (24%).

In the first-two election, Gonzalez started well behind Harrell in the early returns, but mostly closed the gap by the time the election was certified.

We could see a similar dynamic unfold this fall.

Seattle City Attorney

Ann Davison, who ran as a Republican for Lieutenant Governor last year (but now tells Seattle residents that she voted for Joe Biden as she seeks general election support) currently leads Seattle City Attorney, although she finished behind Nicole Thomas-Kennedy in the Top Two. 26% of those polled expressed a preference for Davison, while 22% chose Thomas Kennedy. 45% were not sure.

In our July poll, Davison and Thomas-Kennedy were tied at 14% each and barely behind sitting city attorney Pete Holmes. Both passed him, ending his campaign for re-election.

Seattle City Council Position # 8 (Overall)

The poll found that outgoing Council member Teresa Mosqueda was in good shape for re-election. Mosqueda sailed into the Top Two, defeating a wide range of little-known challengers. She will be pitted against the general by bridge engineer Kenneth Martin, who flew over Kate Martin to claim the other place in the Top Two.

However, although Mosqueda blocked almost 60% of the vote in the first two elections, she did not fare as well in Elway’s poll, suggesting that some of her summer voters are not yet ready. to commit to his candidacy for the final round. . She received 33% in the poll, while Martin received 17%. 40% were not sure.

Seattle City Council Position # 9 (Overall)

The poll found that Fremont Brewing co-founder Sara Nelson led the board seat open at 31%, followed closely by Nikkita Oliver at 26%. 34% were not sure. Oliver topped our July 2021 poll, but was second on election night. However, by the end of the count, they had passed Nelson to take first place.

It’s another race that looks likely to tighten up. Oliver-Nelson certainly has the potential to be one of the most competitive races for city council in recent memory.

Survey methodology

Elway Research polled four hundred Seattle probable voters for Crosscut / KCTS9 from September 7-9, 2021. (Probably in this case, that means having voted in at least one general election in a local cycle in the past four years … 1 of 2017 or 2019). 97 respondents participated via a landline with a live interviewer, 146 participants were interviewed by mobile phone and 158 responded to the survey by SMS. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5.0% at the 95% confidence interval.

Final thoughts

While Harrell, Davison and Nelson all lead their respective races in this investigation, it is early days and their opponents could easily outshine them.

Ann Davison and Sara Nelson both led during stretches during the Top Two, only to watch their opponents pass them to take first place in the final polls.

And Bruce Harrell, despite finishing first, saw much of his comfortable lead over Lorena Gonzalez evaporate upon certification.

Teresa Mosqueda is in a less competitive race, but can’t afford to be complacent as data suggests much of the support she received last month was lukewarm.

The Seattle Times previously supported Harrell, Davison and Nelson, while The Stranger supported Mosqueda, Thomas-Kennedy, Gonzalez and Oliver. We’ll see if The Times decides to line up behind Martin for position # 8. If they did, it would put each post behind a completely different list of candidates for the General.

The NPI does not endorse candidates or take sides in candidate elections, but we will be conducting another city-wide survey of the Seattle electorate next month in partnership with Change Research. These results will be announced here on Cascadia Advocate when they become available.

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