Poll group apologizes to top GOP candidate excluded from California recall poll

An Atlanta-based poll group has apologized to one of the Republican candidates running in the California gubernatorial recall election after poll results the group released earlier this week did not include it .

The Trafalgar Group said it was “a mistake” not to include California State Assembly Member Kevin Kiley on its list of recall candidates, including survey respondents, the poll group in a Friday release. The reminder of candidates included as options for survey respondents was created a few weeks before the survey, the group said, and “it was a mistake on our part not to update it based on the current state of. the race “.

The Trafalgar Group said people who thought it was intentional to leave Kiley’s name off the list were either “bewildered, misled, or trying to mislead others.”

“We sincerely apologize to Kevin Kiley,” said the group’s statement. “Rest assured that our polls in the coming weeks will include Kiley.”

Robert Cahaly, a Trafalgar Group pollster who predicted former President Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 election, retweeted the statement of the voting group on Friday afternoon.

The Trafalgar Group has apologized to GOP recall candidate Kevin Kiley for not including him in a recent California recall poll. Above, Kiley speaks during a debate on the recall of the governors of California on August 25, 2021 in San Francisco.
Scott Strazzante-Pool / Getty Images

The Trafalgar Group on Wednesday shared the results of its late August poll, less than two weeks away from the September 14 special election. While Trafalgar pollsters said a majority of people wanted to keep Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom in power instead of recalling him, they found Tory radio host Larry Elder leading among the candidates for replacement from which respondents had to choose if Newsom was to be ousted.

Other recall candidates listed in the poll results were Democrat Kevin Paffrath and Republicans Kevin Faulconer, John Cox, Caitlyn Jenner and Doug Ose. The poll found that more than 30% of respondents said they were not decided on which recall candidates they would choose, while 9.1% said they would choose another candidate.

“It is likely that some of the people who identified themselves as supporting someone else could very well be Kiley’s voters,” the Trafalgar Group statement said.

Elder has polled before his fellow Republican candidates since launching his gubernatorial campaign in July. While many polls have found Elder leading in double digits, there are a few Republicans voting right behind him, but ahead of dozens of other recall candidates. Kiley has emerged within this group since launching his own governorship campaign in early July.

Kiley often interviews Faulconer and Cox, with whom Kiley shared the stages of the recall debate last month. A poll conducted in late August by the Public Policy Institute of California found that about 3% of likely voters said they would support Kiley during the recall – more than 20 points lower than Elder’s poll numbers, but just right behind Faulconer’s 5% and in line with Cox’s. 3 percent. A SurveyUSA poll released earlier this week found that Kiley and Faulconer both scored 5%, just one point behind Cox, while Elder led with 27%. Recent polls from Change Research, Emerson College and YouGov also found Kiley’s polls to be between 3% and 5% among likely voters.

As Kiley gained a foothold in the polls, he also received support from Ose, the former congressman who ended his own gubernatorial campaign in mid-August after suffering a heart attack.

Kiley said he appreciated the voting group’s comments on Friday in a statement his campaign shared with News week.

“I appreciate the apology from Trafalgar Group. This is appropriate in light of recent polls showing that our campaign has risen to second among Republican candidates in the six weeks since my announcement,” said Kiley. “Our momentum continues to grow and we plan to do well in the poll that ultimately matters – Election Day.”

Updated 3/9 at 7:28 p.m. ET: This article has been updated to include an updated commentary from Kevin Kiley’s campaign.


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