Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight sounds the alarm on Biden poll: it’s not ‘bouncing’ like we expected

Pollster Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight is sounding the alarm bells for President Biden’s struggle to bounce back as his polls continue to dip in recent months.

FiveThirtyEight senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich began an article Wednesday noting how “comfortably above the water” Biden was during the first few months of his presidency, but that the “moon period of honey came to a halt ”between the outbreak of the Delta variant of the coronavirus in July and the chaotic military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August.


“At the time, we speculated that Biden’s approval rating might recover before too long, especially once the news cycle has passed from the crisis in Afghanistan… But we are now at over a month of Biden’s tough August, and there are signs of a rebound in his approval rating, ”Rakich wrote. “At the end of the day on October 5, Biden’s approval / disapproval gap was 44.8% to 47.9%. That approval rating, in fact, is the lowest so far of his presidency. “

Rakish cited data showing the decline in cable news coverage of Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover, but Biden’s bad polls continued, writing, “This is consistent with the argument that the decline Biden’s approval rating was never just about Afghanistan. “

“The timing suggested that it was also due to the resurgence of the pandemic, dissatisfaction with the economy or even the natural return after the honeymoon to a more realistic average in these polarized times. In other words, a myriad of factors, ”Rakish said. wrote.


He then warned that an improvement in the coronavirus pandemic “may not improve his political fortunes,” pointing to Biden’s “stable” polls on the matter despite the decline in cases nationwide. Additionally, Rakich pointed to the uncertainty in the abilities of Democratic lawmakers to pass their spending bills, which will help or hurt Biden’s polls as a result.

“But for now at least, Biden has a lower approval rating at this point in his tenure than all but two presidents since 1945, so if he is to regain his popularity he has an unusually large hole to dig. “, Rakish added.

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