Eric Zemmour rises in the polls ahead of the French elections

Here is today’s one Foreign police In short: Eric Zemmour rises in the polls ahead Francepresidential election, EU ambassadors meet to discuss Belarus, and IranThe chief nuclear negotiator arrives in Berlin.

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Why Love for Zemmour?

Here is today’s one Foreign police In short: Eric Zemmour rises in the polls ahead Francepresidential election, EU ambassadors meet to discuss Belarus, and IranThe chief nuclear negotiator arrives in Berlin.

If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every day of the week, please sign up here.


Why Love for Zemmour?

Emmanuel Macron’s main challenger in next year’s French presidential election may not be Marine Le Pen, as fiery political scholar Eric Zemmour cements his position just behind the president in recent polls.

Although he has not officially declared his candidacy, Zemmour is the choice of around 18% of French voters, according to the latest Harris Interactive poll, at least three percentage points ahead of Le Pen, but behind Macron at 23%. In voting matches for a second second round, Macron still beats all challengers.

Zemmour, author and columnist for the French newspaper Le Figaro is part Tucker Carlson, a media figure lamenting the West’s supposed decline, and part Boris Johnson, invoking history when it suits him while possessing a well-honed understanding of where the West begins and ends. media power. Zemmour kept voters in suspense as to whether he would run, while his latest book became a bestseller.

Benjamin Haddad, Senior Director of Center Europe at the Atlantic Council, notes that although Zemmour adopted modern techniques to stay in the spotlight – constantly stoking outrage by publicly indulging his racial grievances, the immigration, homosexuality and Islam – his position on the French political scene is more classic.

“He’s a far-right nationalist. There is no sugar coated words like populism or anything like that, ”Haddad said. “It is a direct continuation of a far-right tradition in France.

Zemmour’s ability to overtake Le Pen in the right-wing pecking order is partly due to his fame, Haddad said, but also to a reflection of Le Pen and his transformation into a less radical form of politics as his party of the National Rally tried to rebrand, detoxify its image and strengthen power at the local level.

It remains to be seen whether Zemmour’s rise can continue alongside his status as a leader of the right. During this same period of the 2017 race, Alain Juppé of the Republicans was a favorite, before his main defeat against his party colleague François Fillon. Fillon then became the object of fascination, before a scandal of bogus jobs damaged his chances.

Although times have changed since the last presidential election, one fact of this period should give hope to Zemmour and his supporters: In November 2016, Emmanuel Macron had even lower polls than Zemmour now is.

Whatever Zemmour’s intentions, his popularity indicates a divergence between the two European powers. As Germany embraces left-wing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, France’s political battles are unfolding on favorable ground for the far right.


What we are tracking today

Belarusian sanctions. European Council President Charles Michel is traveling to Poland today to meet Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. The meeting comes amid the recent increase in the number of migrants along its border with Belarus as well as an ongoing dispute between Poland and the European Union over recent changes in the country’s legal system.

In Brussels, the 27 European Union ambassadors are expected to approve a resolution outlining Belarus’ actions in escorting migrants to its EU borders as a “hybrid war”, paving the way for further sanctions against the EU. Lukashenko government. The scope of the sanctions has not yet been agreed, but some leaders, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, have called for new sanctions to include airlines bringing migrants to Belarus.

Iran’s negotiator in Europe. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani meets with German officials today in Berlin ahead of the next round of international negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program scheduled for November 29. Bagheri Kani, who will be Iran’s chief negotiator, will visit the UK the following day. Write in Foreign police Last week, Sina Toossi explained why, despite its rhetoric, the Raisi government needs a deal.


UN personnel detained in Ethiopia. The United Nations is working to free 16 of its Ethiopian workers arrested by police in Addis Ababa. UN personnel appear to have been swept away by raids against Tigrayans in the capital. Local police said they only arrested “followers” of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray (TPLF) and that any arrests were “not at all for ethnic reasons”.

The Three Amigos unite. US President Joe Biden is expected to welcome Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador next week at the first so-called “three amigos” meeting in the past five years. The planned Washington rally comes amid tensions over migration across the US-Mexico border as well as Canadian concerns over US subsidies for electric vehicles.


Tensions between Italian and Croatian winegrowers threaten to erupt over an impending EU decision on whether to grant a Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) to a Croatian dessert wine. The disagreement is over branding, with Croatian wine Prosek considered too close to Italian Prosecco. Luca Zaia, governor of Prosecco-producing Veneto in Italy, called the EU decision “shameful” and said it risked destroying “the history and identity of a territory”.

Zaia should rejoice in the experience of Prosecco’s rival sparkling wine, champagne. Neither the Brexit bureaucracy nor a Russian law requiring producers to add a “sparkling wine” label could prevent sales volumes from peaking in four years in 2021.

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