Eric Adams jumps in front, Yang slips in NY1 / Ipsos poll

Eric Adams jumped to the front of the pack, passing Andrew Yang and building a six-point lead in the Democratic mayoral primary, according to the exclusive results of a new Spectrum News NY1 / Ipsos poll.

What would you like to know

  • Eric Adams is now six points ahead of Andrew Yang, 22% to 16%, a reversal from the April poll, which Yang led from 22% to 13%
  • Kathryn Garcia has 15%, a jump of 11 points from April
  • Only 16% of primary voters remain undecided, up from 26% in April
  • The poll questioned 906 likely Democratic voters from May 17 to 31

The poll found Adams leading the pack with 22% support from likely Democratic voters, compared to 16% for Yang. Kathryn Garcia jumped to 15%, marking a dramatic turnaround for the former Sanitation Commissioner, who recorded just 4% in the NY1 / Ipsos poll in April. This placed her last among the top eight candidates.

The results could signal problems for Yang, who has slipped in recent polls after enjoying favorite status in recent months. He led the race over Adams, 22% to 13%, in the April poll.

The latest poll, which polled 906 probable Democratic voters from May 17 to 31, found Scott Stringer in fourth place with 10%, followed by Maya Wiley at 9%. Dianne Morales, Ray McGuire and Shaun Donovan all got stuck in the middle numbers.

The poll reflects an increase in Garcia’s popularity following the approval of the New York Times and New York Daily News editorial boards. The poll came ahead of more recent developments in the race, including a second allegation of sexual misconduct against Stringer, and Wiley got the coveted endorsement of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Saturday.

The numbers also show that New Yorkers are paying more attention to the primary and are starting to firm up their opinions in the final weeks of the race. Only 16% of likely voters are still undecided on their top candidate, up from 26% in April.

Primary is June 22, with early voting starting June 12.

This heightened awareness has eroded what has been perhaps Yang’s most critical advantage so far: a level of name recognition that has far surpassed that of his opponents.

Eighty-five percent of voters say they are very or somewhat familiar with Yang. It’s still the highest among the eight candidates, but others have closed the gap: Scott Stringer is now familiar to 77% of voters, with Eric Adams at 73%.

While Kathryn Garcia is only known to 54% of voters, it’s a huge jump from April when she was only known by 29%. The least known candidate among voters is Dianne Morales, at 35%.

The NY1 / Ipsos poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The credibility interval is +/- 4.5 percentage points for likely Democratic voters.

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