Emerson Polling – New York Congressional Polls: Voters Not Sold on DeBlasio at NY10; Maloney is 10 points ahead of Nadler at NY12

Following a court-ordered redistricting in New York, a poll by Emerson College/Pix11/The hill A survey of likely Democratic primary voters in the newly drawn 10th and 12th congressional districts finds an undecided 77% majority in the 10th district, and Carolyn Maloney leading Jerry Nadler by 10 points in the 12th district.

While a majority of voters in the 10th District covering Brooklyn and Lower Manhattan are undecided, 7% back U.S. Representative for the 17th District Mondaire Jones, 6% back former Mayor Bill DeBlasio, and 5% support New York Assembly Member Yuh Line Niou.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said, “DeBlasio’s low primary support may be his endorsement of the work among his former voters: 21% of Democratic voters in the 10th District approve of the work DeBlasio has done in as mayor of New York, while 64% disapprove. The high share of undecided voters is unlikely to turn to DeBlasio, as 69% of undecided voters disapprove of the job he has done as mayor.

In the redesigned 12th congressional district that spans both the Upper East Side and the West Side, longtime Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler are vying for the same seat. Among likely voters, Maloney leads Nadler 31% to 21%, with 36% undecided.

“Maloney’s support is strongest with female voters,” Kimball continued, “a 35% plurality of female voters support her in the Democratic primary, while male voters are more divided: 26% support Maloney and 22% back Nadel.”

A majority of voters in both districts find it important that a US House candidate live in the district in which they are running: 87% in the 10th district and 86% in the 12th district find their residence in the district very or somewhat important.

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of Democratic primary voters in the 10th District approve of the job Eric Adams is doing as Mayor of New York, while 46% disapprove. Adams’ approval is lower in the 12: 23% approve and 54% disapprove of the work he does as mayor.

For voters in the 10th and 12th Wards, crime dominates as the top problem facing New York City: In the 10th Ward, 33% say crime is the top problem facing the city, followed by 18% savings. In the 12th arrondissement, 40% believe that crime is the most important problem facing the city, followed by the economy at 23%.

Voters in both boroughs are concerned about the level of hate crimes in their community: 89% in the 10th and 12th respectively say they are very or somewhat worried. The data was collected following the shootings in Buffalo, New York and Uvalde, Texas.

In general, 82% of the inhabitants of the 10th arrondissement and 78% of those of the 12th arrondissement feel very or fairly safe in their neighborhood. In the metro, however, less than 50% in the 10th arrondissement and 45% in the 12th arrondissement feel very or somewhat safe when taking the metro.

Democratic voters in New York were asked to rate the quality of public transportation systems. In the 10th arrondissement, 36% rate the quality of the public transport system in their region as good, 32% as average, 20% as excellent and 12% as poor.

Similarly, in the 12th arrondissement, 40% rate the quality of the public transport system in their region as good, 33% as average, 17% as excellent and 11% as poor.

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The Emerson College Polling New York congressional polls of Democratic voters in the 10th and 12th districts were conducted May 24-25, 2022. The 10th district sample consisted of fairly or very likely Democratic voters, n=500, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.3 percentage points. The 12th District sample was made up of fairly or very likely Democratic voters, n=500, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/-4.3 percentage points. Datasets were weighted by gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity based on the 2022 participation modeling. It is important to remember that the sub- sets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity have higher margins of error because the sample size is small. Data was collected using an interactive voice response (IVR) system from landlines and a sample of cell phones using SMS-to-web.

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