There could be more movement in a stationary bike.
With Thursday’s Ontario election just days away, Doug Ford’s PCs appear to be heading for a second straight majority, and Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca is at risk of losing his own riding, according to the latest update from The Signal, a news aggregator. polls created for Vox Pop Labs Star.
If the vote took place today, the PCs would obtain 36.9% of the popular vote, ahead of the 27.2% of the Liberals and the 22.7% of the New Democrats, including 6.9% for the Greens. That would translate to 75 seats for the Conservatives, 28 for the NDP, 20 for the Liberals and one seat for Mike Schreiner’s Green Party.
And that’s pretty much where it’s been for most of the campaign.
“The really interesting trend is the low volatility in the polls during this campaign,” Vox Pop CEO Clifton van der Linden said, adding that he doesn’t recall ever seeing a campaign with so little movement in the campaign. this province.
“Not in Ontario. It’s really quite surprising given how lively political competition is at the federal level,” van der Linden said.
In the 2018 elections, the PCs won 76 seats. Andrea Horwath led the NDP to official opposition status with 40 seats, and then-Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals were reduced to seven seats, losing official party status. Mike Schreiner won the riding of Guelph to give the Green Party its first seat in the Ontario Legislative Assembly.
The Signal’s seat projection, which is based on polls made public from the current campaign, as well as the results of the 2018 election, has only six seats listed as draws. Last weekend there were 10.
One constituency not listed as a draw is Vaughan-Woodbridge, where Del Duca is widely believed to be in the fight of his political life against incumbent PC MP Michael Tibollo. The Signal projection currently lists the constituency as a “likely” PC victory.
Ford, Horwath and Schreiner are all projected as “safe” in their ridings of Etobicoke North, Hamilton Center and Guelph, respectively.
While van der Linden is fairly confident that Horwath and the NDP will finish second in the seat tally, he points out that’s not set in stone.
“If current trends continue until election day, I think it would be surprising if the NDP lost its official opposition status in the next provincial government. But statistically speaking, it’s actually less certain that will be the case than it was last week,” said van der Linden, who explained that the NDP vote would likely result in more seats. despite a lower overall vote share than the Liberals. That, says van der Linden, is because NDP votes are likely more concentrated in fewer ridings.
“It’s really a feature of our Westminster model. The distribution of votes matters more than the overall vote share,” van der Linden said.
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